Magic 8-Ball Oscar Picks

We've reached that time of year when Oscar buzz actually doubles back on itself. (Example: Brokeback Mountain will win best picture not because a plurality of the academy voted for it, but because the people who voted against it split their votes between Crash and Good Night, And Good Luck.) Which means it's time to turn to that tried and true oracle: My Magic 8-Ball.

You know the drill, or else you're about to know the drill: Each nominee is presented to the Magic 8-Ball; most positive answer in each category gets the pick. Base your pool selections on this at your own risk; after all, it's not like the Magic 8-Ball has seen most of the nominated movies. Of course, if you do win anything with this list, I hope you'll remember who loves you enough to make sure you see the picks. Which would be me. Hi.

BEST PICTURE: Good Night, And Good Luck
DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg for Munich (Note: It was awfully close between this and Paul Haggis for Crash. Maybe, in the end, the 8-Ball realized what small-h haggis is, and decided it didn't like the big-H one either.)
ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix in Walk The Line
ACTRESS: Felicity Huffman in Transamerica
SUPPORTING ACTOR: George Clooney in Syriana (Like everyone who's picking him, I'm sure the Magic 8-Ball is actually predicting that Clooney he'll get it for all his work on Good Night, And Good Luck. The Supporting Actor award is rarely about the actual nominated performance.)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Michelle Williams in Brokeback Mountain
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Crash
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Brokeback Mountain
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Brokeback Mountain
FILM EDITING: Cinderella Man
ART DIRECTION: Good Night, And Good Luck
COSTUME DESIGN: Memoirs Of A Geisha
MAKEUP:Cinderella Man
SCORE:Memoirs Of A Geisha (Close between this and Brokeback Mountain. I think the 8-Ball just likes John Williams a little more.)
SONG: "Travelin' Thru'" from Transamerica
SOUND EDITING: Memoirs Of A Geisha
SOUND MIXING: War Of The Worlds
VISUAL EFFECTS: War Of The Worlds
ANIMATED FEATURE: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse Of The Were-Rabbit
ANIMATED SHORT FILM: One Man Band
FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: Paradise Now (Palestine) (Or, if you're really touchy, the Palestinian Authority. If you fall into that camp, please note that the Magic 8-Ball is an inanimate object, and as such won't be reading any excoriating email you may be thinking about sending.)
LIVE-ACTION SHORT: Cashback
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Street Fight
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club

So, there you go. Enjoy. Or, y'know, don't.